August 05, 2001 1900 UT

SOLAR ALERT

          HELIOSYNOPTICS,    BOULDER, COLORADO

PROTON FLARES EXPECTED

  Region 9557b (S20 W35) has developed dark, sheared penumbral structure
overlying, and parallel to, the polarity boundary passing east-west through
its large spot group. If these structures are maintained, or grow stronger,
there will be Class-M5 or greater x-ray flares with proton fluence.
Multiple events are expected, beginning late today and continuing past west
limb passage on August 09. This region has characteristics similar to
Super-Region 9415 in April, and its location is close to Region 9415's
coordinates extrapolated to the present time.  Region 9415 produced an X14
event on 15 April with a serious Ground Level Proton Event.

  This region has been very quiet for a region with its size and structure.
This is consistent with the depressed level of flare activity throughout
this solar cycle. Whatever large-scale process is suppressing flare
activity may prevent Region 9557b from reaching major flare status. Given
the present structure and evolution it is prudent to take actions as if
great flares are imminent.

--

Patrick S. McIntosh
HelioSynoptics and
McIntosh Squared Graphics
3885 Paseo del Prado
Boulder, CO 80301-1527
303-444-5880  FAX: 303-440-0102